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Climate Change and the Middle East

By Dr. Jim Salinger
New Zealand Vice President, B’nai B’rith Australia/New Zealand
Deputy Editor, Climatic Change Journal
On Dec. 12, 2015, 196 nations signed the Paris Climate Accord—which limits the rise of global temperatures, by cutting down on climate change emissions from fossil fuels, and rapidly adopting green energy sources. This requires reducing emissions of heat trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) from coal and oil combustion. The switch to transitional and renewable energy sources such as natural gas and solar energy is likely to change the political landscape of the Middle East.
The impacts of global warming are now becoming very apparent—the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center shows that Hurricane Harvey was a 1-in-1,000-year flood event and unprecedented in U.S. history. Climate change has made extreme rainfall events more intense in recent decades, and more frequent. Therefore limiting global warming must be a top priority.

The impacts of global warming are now becoming very apparent—the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center shows that Hurricane Harvey was a 1-in-1,000-year flood event and unprecedented in U.S. history. Climate change has made extreme rainfall events more intense in recent decades, and more frequent. Therefore limiting global warming must be a top priority.

As of August 2017, 196 countries, including Israel, have pledged enough reductions to limit global warming currently to 2.5 – 2.8°C. The target is less than 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels. The diagram below shows that CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions must rapidly reduce after peaking around 2020. 

Scaled-up action in energy efficiency and renewable energy is vital to deliver the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and these measures will also be the largest contributors in moving beyond the NDCs and limiting warming to 2°C.

Natural gas is very much a transition fuel. It dramatically reduces carbon emissions and air pollution, switching power generation from coal to gas and use as a transport fuel. The State of Israel is correct to speed up plans with Greece and Cyprus to develop a pipeline channeling gas to Europe from newly discovered east Mediterranean reserves. This also gives Israel some independence from imported coal and oil.

Peak Oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. Current predictions have Peak Oil being reached around 2020. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that, in 2013, the highest proved global oil reserves, including non-conventional oil deposits, are in Venezuela (20 percent) and Saudi Arabia (18 percent) followed by Canada (13 percent) and Iran (9 percent). Currently a third of global oil exports are from Arab states of the Persian Gulf. As U.S. oil production continues increasing, OPEC oil gets edged out of the lucrative American oil market. America imported about 60 percent of its oil in 2007, but by 2014, the U.S. only imported 27 percent of its oil—the lowest level since 1985, reducing demand for Gulf state oil. As well Saudi Arabia sees the end of the oil age soon. Therefore as the owner of the largest, most accessible crude resource it is continuing to subsidize higher prices for other producers at the risk of leaving its own future oil untapped. 

Recently there has been strong growth of solar energy with photovoltaics (PV) –an area where there is great Israeli expertise. The scientific journal Nature published findings, in its August 2017 issue, showing that PV deployment has been consistently underestimated. PV has had the greatest growth rate of any renewable energy resource, being 40 percent per year over the past decade. Updated climate change mitigation scenarios show that PV could be the dominant electricity generation technology, supplying 30-50 percent of the energy by 2050. This allows for the energy system becoming more electricity intensive, especially with the growth of electric vehicles.

The geopolitical consequences of such changes will be momentous. Firstly the international politics has demonstrated the influence of a product (oil) dependency on relations among nations. During the 20th century the dependence of developed countries on oil has been an element of power in the hands of the Gulf States. However the longer years of dependency of the Gulf States on developed countries such as the U.S., and lack of knowledge as well as expertise, even relating to oil are neutralizing this element of power. This will take pre-eminence over the reliance on oil. The current rapid shift away from oil to natural gas as a transition fuel will take power away from the Gulf States and shift it partly toward Russia with the development of gas infrastructure. Further out the development of PV will diminish oil politics even further.
Because of climate change the rapid shift to natural gas as a transition fuel, with the development of solar PV during the 21st century will drive a discernible swing in Middle East geopolitics. The once ascendency of the Arab Gulf States should dramatically diminish. Geopolitically, the impact of low oil prices is concentrated in the Middle East, where political structures are brittle and based on oil wealth-supported patronage. As the oil money runs out, these regimes could fracture and decline, as well as those they support. In comparison the State of Israel is well placed by investing strongly in natural gas and solar PV. ​​