The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is on the brink of collapse. The tragedy has simmered over decades, culminating in civil unrest, barren shelves, looting, riots and lacking institutions, which have captured headlines for two years. President Nicolas Maduro continues to shift the blame externally for Venezuela’s woes, faulting an axis of foreign companies, the United States and other dark foreign forces.
In reality, the challenges stem from a melding of socialism and authoritarianism that has systematically destroyed Venezuela’s capacity across industries. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Venezuelan economy is expected to shrink 8% this year, with inflation rising to a staggering 720%. And the government has dug its heels in. Venezuela has avoided technical assistance from the I.M.F. and other international institutions for economies in crisis. Maduro’s public is fed up.
The Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis found that 68 percent of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. At the beginning of May, the national coalition of opposition parties got the ball rolling on a recall referendum to remove him from power before his term is set to end in 2019. The coalition delivered over 1.85 million signatures, nearly 10 times the number required to launch the recall process.
All expect that the referendum may be hard to push through, with the understanding that the National Electoral Council is staffed by loyalists to the Bolivarian revolution. As if that weren’t enough of an obstacle, rolling blackouts have the workweek reduced to two days. The ostensible effort to preserve electricity will strangle the agency’s already stagnated capacity to a slow drip.
In reality, the challenges stem from a melding of socialism and authoritarianism that has systematically destroyed Venezuela’s capacity across industries. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Venezuelan economy is expected to shrink 8% this year, with inflation rising to a staggering 720%. And the government has dug its heels in. Venezuela has avoided technical assistance from the I.M.F. and other international institutions for economies in crisis. Maduro’s public is fed up.
The Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis found that 68 percent of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. At the beginning of May, the national coalition of opposition parties got the ball rolling on a recall referendum to remove him from power before his term is set to end in 2019. The coalition delivered over 1.85 million signatures, nearly 10 times the number required to launch the recall process.
All expect that the referendum may be hard to push through, with the understanding that the National Electoral Council is staffed by loyalists to the Bolivarian revolution. As if that weren’t enough of an obstacle, rolling blackouts have the workweek reduced to two days. The ostensible effort to preserve electricity will strangle the agency’s already stagnated capacity to a slow drip.
For years, Venezuela has employed petro-diplomacy to buy regional allies, and has counted on the support of both those still loyal to Maduro and those simply reluctant to criticize. But Petrocaribe influence is curbed by the drying of Venezuela’s reserves and its economic collapse.
Meanwhile, Maduro declared a state of emergency in order “to tend to our country and more importantly to prepare to denounce, neutralize and overcome the external and foreign aggressions against our country.” In truth, Maduro is silencing a growing domestic opposition through intimidation.
All of that is not to say that Venezuela isn’t feeling any external pressure or criticism. On Wednesday, May 11, Maduro accused Secretary General of the Organization of American States Mr. Luis Almagro of being a traitor and an agent of the CIA. This continued a row that began last year when Almagro accused the Venezuelan government of manipulating judicial independence, stifling political dissent and impeding free media.
Almagro, a bold critic of Maduro and his government, retorted with a public letter addressed to the Venezuelan president, likening him to petty dictators that have plagued the hemisphere. “You betray your people and your supposed ideology with your rambling tirades, you are a traitor to ethics in politics with your lies and you betray the most sacred principle in politics, which is to subject yourself to the scrutiny of your people.” Almagro is expected to convene a special session at the OAS invoking the democratic charter to discuss abuses, use of excessive force, censorship and the erosion of other fundamental rights in Venezuela.
For years, Venezuela has employed petro-diplomacy to buy regional allies, and has counted on the support of both those still loyal to Maduro and those simply reluctant to criticize. But Petrocaribe influence is curbed by the drying of Venezuela’s reserves and its economic collapse.
For the United States’ part, officials have predicted Maduro is not likely to be allowed to complete his term, but acknowledged that Washington has little leverage. In a briefing to reporters, the administration expressed its hope for regional efforts to help keep the country from complete collapse.
They also expressed concern for a possible spillover to infect neighboring countries, and rightly so. The stability of Latin America is greatly impacted by the unrest in Venezuela, and vice versa. Venezuela has proven a breeding ground for Iranian infiltration into the region, just another dangerous symptom of unchecked corruption and misery. On the flip side, the calls for referendum are certainly emboldened by the ongoing impeachment scandal of Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff.
Drastic steps must be taken to reverse the economic meltdown and erosion of democratic values. But it is highly likely that the government will continue business as usual in order to maintain its power. Would Venezuela consider swallowing the tough pill of privatizing portions of the oil industry and simultaneously convince foreign investors that it will enforce the rule of law and allow the companies to operate unimpeded? It’s doubtful the government will change course. Can Maduro turn the tide on popular distrust and civil unrest? A seemingly insurmountable task. And can regional actors stand up for principled measures to ensure justice and human rights for their neighbors in Venezuela? What’s to follow leaves us with uncertainty, but the status quo is dire.
All of that is not to say that Venezuela isn’t feeling any external pressure or criticism. On Wednesday, May 11, Maduro accused Secretary General of the Organization of American States Mr. Luis Almagro of being a traitor and an agent of the CIA. This continued a row that began last year when Almagro accused the Venezuelan government of manipulating judicial independence, stifling political dissent and impeding free media.
Almagro, a bold critic of Maduro and his government, retorted with a public letter addressed to the Venezuelan president, likening him to petty dictators that have plagued the hemisphere. “You betray your people and your supposed ideology with your rambling tirades, you are a traitor to ethics in politics with your lies and you betray the most sacred principle in politics, which is to subject yourself to the scrutiny of your people.” Almagro is expected to convene a special session at the OAS invoking the democratic charter to discuss abuses, use of excessive force, censorship and the erosion of other fundamental rights in Venezuela.
For years, Venezuela has employed petro-diplomacy to buy regional allies, and has counted on the support of both those still loyal to Maduro and those simply reluctant to criticize. But Petrocaribe influence is curbed by the drying of Venezuela’s reserves and its economic collapse.
For the United States’ part, officials have predicted Maduro is not likely to be allowed to complete his term, but acknowledged that Washington has little leverage. In a briefing to reporters, the administration expressed its hope for regional efforts to help keep the country from complete collapse.
They also expressed concern for a possible spillover to infect neighboring countries, and rightly so. The stability of Latin America is greatly impacted by the unrest in Venezuela, and vice versa. Venezuela has proven a breeding ground for Iranian infiltration into the region, just another dangerous symptom of unchecked corruption and misery. On the flip side, the calls for referendum are certainly emboldened by the ongoing impeachment scandal of Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff.
Drastic steps must be taken to reverse the economic meltdown and erosion of democratic values. But it is highly likely that the government will continue business as usual in order to maintain its power. Would Venezuela consider swallowing the tough pill of privatizing portions of the oil industry and simultaneously convince foreign investors that it will enforce the rule of law and allow the companies to operate unimpeded? It’s doubtful the government will change course. Can Maduro turn the tide on popular distrust and civil unrest? A seemingly insurmountable task. And can regional actors stand up for principled measures to ensure justice and human rights for their neighbors in Venezuela? What’s to follow leaves us with uncertainty, but the status quo is dire.
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Sienna Girgenti is the Assistant Director for the International Center for Human Rights and Public Policy at B’nai B’rith International. To view some of her additional content, Click Here. |
